Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?

The Demographic Transition Model was developed by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. DTM depicts the demographic history of a country. It refers to the transition from high birth and high death rates to low birth and low death rates regime as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.

The five stages of the demographic transition model

Stage One: The Pre-Industrial Stage (highly fluctuating – high stationary)

  • Both birth rate and death rate are high
  • Population fluctuates due to incidence of famine, disease and war.
  • High infant mortality and very low life expectancy.
  • Rural societies dependent on subsistence agriculture.
  • Total population is low and balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates.

Example: No country as a whole at present retains the characteristics of stage 1. However, it applies only to the most remote societies on earth such as the isolated tribes in Amazon with little or no contact with the outside world.
All human populations are believed to have had this stage until the late 18th century, when many countries in Western Europe were able to cross this stage.

Stage Two: The Industrial Revolution (early expanding) –very rapid increase

  • Death rate falls sharply due to improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remain high. Total population grows very quickly.
  • Improvement in farming technology and increase in food supply
  • Better nutrition, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene and improvement in public health system .
  • Increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs

Example: poorest developing countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bolivia, sub-Saharan countries such as Niger, Uganda and middle east countries like Yemen, Palestinian Territories are still in stage 2.

Stage Three: Post-Industrial Revolution (late expanding) –increase slows down

  • Birth rate falls due to the availability of contraception.
  • Reduction of child labour- fewer children being needed to work in farm due to mechanization of farming
  • Death rate stays at low level due to improved health conditions
  • An increase in the status and education of women
  • Total population still rises rapidly due to population momentum.
  • The gap between birth and death rates narrows down

Example: Most developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are in stage 3, such as Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, India.
On the way:South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have begun to move into stage 3

Stage Four: Stabilization (low stationary) – very slow increase

  • Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families.
  • Both birth and death rate are low
  • Total population is still high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate.

Example: Newly industrialized countries such as South Korea and Taiwan have just entered stage 4.United States, Canada, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil, Singapore, Iran, China, Turkey, Thailand and Mauritius

Stage Five: Declining population

  • Low birth rate along with an aging population leads to declining population
  • Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases like obesity, stress and diabetic.
  • Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level

Example:  Countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia leading to a shrinking population

What happens to birth and death rates?
As populations move through the stages of the model, the gap between birth rate and death rate first widens, then narrows. In stage 1 the two rates are balanced. In stage 2 they diverge, as the death rate falls relative to the birth rate. In stage 3 they converge again, as the birth rate falls relative to the death rate. Finally in stage 4 the death and birth rates are balanced again but at a much lower level.

Section 3: Mortality Frequency Measures

Mortality rate

A mortality rate is a measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified interval. Morbidity and mortality measures are often the same mathematically; it’s just a matter of what you choose to measure, illness or death. The formula for the mortality of a defined population, over a specified period of time, is:

Deaths occurring during a given time period

Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Size of the population among which
the deaths occurred

× 10 n

When mortality rates are based on vital statistics (e.g., counts of death certificates), the denominator most commonly used is the size of the population at the middle of the time period. In the United States, values of 1,000 and 100,000 are both used for 10n for most types of mortality rates. Table 3.4 summarizes the formulas of frequently used mortality measures.

Table 3.4 Frequently Used Measures of Mortality

MeasureNumeratorDenominator10n
Crude death rateTotal number of deaths during a given time interval Mid-interval population 1,000 or
100,000
Cause-specific death rateNumber of deaths assigned to a specific cause during a given time interval Mid-interval population 100,000
Proportionate mortalityNumber of deaths assigned to a specific cause during a given time interval Total number of deaths from all causes during the same time interval 100 or 1,000
Death-to-case ratioNumber of deaths assigned to a specific cause during a given time interval Number of new cases of same disease reported during the same time interval 100
Neonatal mortality rateNumber of deaths among children
< 28 days of age during a given time interval
Number of live births during the same time interval 1,000
Postneonatal mortality rateNumber of deaths among children 28–364 days of age during a given time interval Number of live births during the same time interval 1,000
Infant mortality rateNumber of deaths among children
< 1 year of age during a given time interval
Number of live births during the same time interval 1,000
Maternal mortality rateNumber of deaths assigned to pregnancy-related causes during a given time interval Number of live births during the same time interval 100,000

Crude mortality rate (crude death rate)

The crude mortality rate is the mortality rate from all causes of death for a population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 2,419,921 deaths occurred. The estimated population was 290,809,777. The crude mortality rate in 2003 was, therefore, (2,419,921 ⁄ 290,809,777) × 100,000, or 832.1 deaths per 100,000 population.(8)

Cause-specific mortality rate

The cause-specific mortality rate is the mortality rate from a specified cause for a population. The numerator is the number of deaths attributed to a specific cause. The denominator remains the size of the population at the midpoint of the time period. The fraction is usually expressed per 100,000 population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 108,256 deaths were attributed to accidents (unintentional injuries), yielding a cause-specific mortality rate of 37.2 per 100,000 population.(8)

Age-specific mortality rate

An age-specific mortality rate is a mortality rate limited to a particular age group. The numerator is the number of deaths in that age group; the denominator is the number of persons in that age group in the population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 130,761 deaths occurred among persons aged 25–44 years, or an age-specific mortality rate of 153.0 per 100,000 25–44 year olds.(8) Some specific types of age-specific mortality rates are neonatal, postneonatal, and infant mortality rates, as described in the following sections.

Infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate is perhaps the most commonly used measure for comparing health status among nations. It is calculated as follows:

Number of deaths among children < 1 year of age reported during a given time period

Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Number of live births reported during the
same time period

× 1,000

The infant mortality rate is generally calculated on an annual basis. It is a widely used measure of health status because it reflects the health of the mother and infant during pregnancy and the year thereafter. The health of the mother and infant, in turn, reflects a wide variety of factors, including access to prenatal care, prevalence of prenatal maternal health behaviors (such as alcohol or tobacco use and proper nutrition during pregnancy, etc.), postnatal care and behaviors (including childhood immunizations and proper nutrition), sanitation, and infection control.

Is the infant mortality rate a ratio? Yes. Is it a proportion? No, because some of the deaths in the numerator were among children born the previous year. Consider the infant mortality rate in 2003. That year, 28,025 infants died and 4,089,950 children were born, for an infant mortality rate of 6.951 per 1,000.8 Undoubtedly, some of the deaths in 2003 occurred among children born in 2002, but the denominator includes only children born in 2003.

Is the infant mortality rate truly a rate? No, because the denominator is not the size of the mid-year population of children < 1 year of age in 2003. In fact, the age-specific death rate for children < 1 year of age for 2003 was 694.7 per 100,000.(8) Obviously the infant mortality rate and the age-specific death rate for infants are very similar (695.1 versus 694.7 per 100,000) and close enough for most purposes. They are not exactly the same, however, because the estimated number of infants residing in the United States on July 1, 2003 was slightly larger than the number of children born in the United States in 2002, presumably because of immigration.

Neonatal mortality rate

The neonatal period covers birth up to but not including 28 days. The numerator of the neonatal mortality rate therefore is the number of deaths among children under 28 days of age during a given time period. The denominator of the neonatal mortality rate, like that of the infant mortality rate, is the number of live births reported during the same time period. The neonatal mortality rate is usually expressed per 1,000 live births. In 2003, the neonatal mortality rate in the United States was 4.7 per 1,000 live births.(8)

Postneonatal mortality rate

The postneonatal period is defined as the period from 28 days of age up to but not including 1 year of age. The numerator of the postneonatal mortality rate therefore is the number of deaths among children from 28 days up to but not including 1 year of age during a given time period. The denominator is the number of live births reported during the same time period. The postneonatal mortality rate is usually expressed per 1,000 live births. In 2003, the postneonatal mortality rate in the United States was 2.3 per 1,000 live births.(8)

Maternal mortality rate

The maternal mortality rate is really a ratio used to measure mortality associated with pregnancy. The numerator is the number of deaths during a given time period among women while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration and the site of the pregnancy, from any cause related to or aggravated by the pregnancy or its management, but not from accidental or incidental causes. The denominator is the number of live births reported during the same time period. Maternal mortality rate is usually expressed per 100,000 live births. In 2003, the U.S. maternal mortality rate was 8.9 per 100,000 live births.(8)

Sex-specific mortality rate

A sex-specific mortality rate is a mortality rate among either males or females. Both numerator and denominator are limited to the one sex.

Race-specific mortality rate

A race-specific mortality rate is a mortality rate related to a specified racial group. Both numerator and denominator are limited to the specified race.

Combinations of specific mortality rates

Mortality rates can be further stratified by combinations of cause, age, sex, and/or race. For example, in 2002, the death rate from diseases of the heart among women ages 45–54 years was 50.6 per 100,000.(9) The death rate from diseases of the heart among men in the same age group was 138.4 per 100,000, or more than 2.5 times as high as the comparable rate for women. These rates are a cause-, age-, and sex-specific rates, because they refer to one cause (diseases of the heart), one age group (45–54 years), and one sex (female or male).

EXAMPLE: Calculating Mortality Rates

Table 3.5 provides the number of deaths from all causes and from accidents (unintentional injuries) by age group in the United States in 2002. Review the following rates. Determine what to call each one, then calculate it using the data provided in Table 3.5.

  1. Unintentional-injury-specific mortality rate for the entire population

    This is a cause-specific mortality rate.

    Rate =

    number of unintentional injury deaths in the entire population

    Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
    estimated midyear population

    × 100,000

    = (106,742 ⁄ 288,357,000) × 100,000

    = 37.0 unintentional-injury-related deaths per 100,000 population

  2. All-cause mortality rate for 25–34 year olds

    This is an age-specific mortality rate.

    Rate =

    number of deaths from all causes among 25–34 year olds

    Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
    estimated midyear population of 25–34 year olds

    × 100,000

    = 103.6 deaths per 100,000 25–34 year olds

  3. All-cause mortality among males

    This is a sex-specific mortality rate.

    Rate =

    number of deaths from all causes among males

    Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
    estimated midyear population of males

    × 100,000

    = (1,199,264 ⁄ 141,656,000) × 100,000

    = 846.6 deaths per 100,000 males

  4. Unintentional-injury specific mortality among 25 to 34 year old males

    This is a cause-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific mortality rate

    Rate =

    number of unintentional injury deaths among 25–34 year old males

    Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
    estimated midyear population of 25–34 year old males

    × 100,000

    = (9,635 ⁄ 20,203,000) × 100,000

    = 47.7 unintentional-injury-related deaths per 100,000 25–34 year olds

Table 3.5 All-Cause and Unintentional Injury Mortality and Estimated Population by Age Group, For Both Sexes and For Males Alone — United States, 2002

All Races, Both_sexesAll Races, Males
Age group (years)All_causesUnintentional InjuriesEstimated Pop. (× 1000)All_causesUnintentional InjuriesEstimated Pop. (× 1000)
Total2,443,387 106,742 288,357 1,199,264 69,257 141,656
0–432,892 2,587 19,597 18,523 1,577 10,020
5–147,150 2,718 41,037 4,198 1713 21,013
15–2433,046 15,412 40,590 24,416 11,438 20,821
25–3441,355 12,569 39,928 28,736 9,635 20,203
35–4491,140 16,710 44,917 57,593 12,012 22,367
45–54172,385 14,675 40,084 107,722 10,492 19,676
55–64253,342 8,345 26,602 151,363 5,781 12,784
65+1,811,720 33,641 35,602 806,431 16,535 14,772
Not stated357 85 0 282 74 0

Data Source: Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) [online database] Atlanta; National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars.

Exercise 3.3

In 2001, a total of 15,555 homicide deaths occurred among males and 4,753 homicide deaths occurred among females. The estimated 2001 midyear populations for males and females were 139,813,000 and 144,984,000, respectively.

  1. Calculate the homicide-related death rates for males and for females.
  2. What type(s) of mortality rates did you calculate in Question 1?
  3. Calculate the ratio of homicide-mortality rates for males compared to females.
  4. Interpret the rate you calculated in Question 3 as if you were presenting information to a policymaker.

Check your answer.

Age-adjusted mortality rate: a mortality rate statistically modified to eliminate the effect of different age distributions in the different populations.

Age-adjusted mortality rates

Mortality rates can be used to compare the rates in one area with the rates in another area, or to compare rates over time. However, because mortality rates obviously increase with age, a higher mortality rate among one population than among another might simply reflect the fact that the first population is older than the second.

Consider that the mortality rates in 2002 for the states of Alaska and Florida were 472.2 and 1,005.7 per 100,000, respectively (see Table 3.6). Should everyone from Florida move to Alaska to reduce their risk of death? No, the reason that Alaska’s mortality rate is so much lower than Florida’s is that Alaska’s population is considerably younger. Indeed, for seven age groups, the age-specific mortality rates in Alaska are actually higher than Florida’s.

To eliminate the distortion caused by different underlying age distributions in different populations, statistical techniques are used to adjust or standardize the rates among the populations to be compared. These techniques take a weighted average of the age-specific mortality rates, and eliminate the effect of different age distributions among the different populations. Mortality rates computed with these techniques are age-adjustedor age-standardized mortality rates. Alaska’s 2002 age-adjusted mortality rate (794.1 per 100,000) was higher than Florida’s (787.8 per 100,000), which is not surprising given that 7 of 13 age-specific mortality rates were higher in Alaska than Florida.

Death-to-case ratio

Definition of death-to-case ratio

The death-to-case ratio is the number of deaths attributed to a particular disease during a specified time period divided by the number of new cases of that disease identified during the same time period. The death-to-case ratio is a ratio but not necessarily a proportion, because some of the deaths that are counted in the numerator might have occurred among persons who developed disease in an earlier period, and are therefore not counted in the denominator.

Table 3.6 All-Cause Mortality by Age Group — Alaska and Florida, 2002

ALASKAFLORIDA
Age group
(years)
PopulationDeathsDeath Rate
(per 100,000)
PopulationDeathsDeath Rate
(per 100,000)
<19,938 55 553.4 205,579 1,548 753
1–438,503 12 31.2 816,570 296 36.2
5–950,400 6 11.9 1,046,504 141 13.5
10–1457,216 24 41.9 1,131,068 219 19.4
15–1956,634 43 75.9 1,073,470 734 68.4
20–2442,929 63 146.8 1,020,856 1,146 112.3
25–3484,112 120 142.7 2,090,312 2,627 125.7
35–44107,305 280 260.9 2,516,004 5,993 238.2
45–54103,039 427 414.4 2,225,957 10,730 482
55–6452,543 480 913.5 1,694,574 16,137 952.3
65–7424,096 502 2,083.30 1,450,843 28,959 1,996.00
65–8411,784 645 5,473.50 1,056,275 50,755 4,805.10
85+3,117 373 11,966.60 359,056 48,486 13,503.70
UnknownNA 0 NA NA 43 NA
Total3,030 3,030 472.2 16,687,068 167,814 1,005.70
Age-adjusted Rate: 794.1 787.8

Data Source: Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) [online database] Atlanta; National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars.

Method for calculating death-to-case ratio

Number of deaths attributed to a particular disease during specified period

Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Number of new cases of the disease identified during the specified period

× 10 n

EXAMPLE: Calculating Death-to-Case Ratios

Between 1940 and 1949, a total of 143,497 incident cases of diphtheria were reported. During the same decade, 11,228 deaths were attributed to diphtheria. Calculate the death-to-case ratio.

Death-to-case ratio = 11,228 ⁄ 143,497 × 1 = 0.0783

or

= 11,228 ⁄ 143,497 × 100 = 7.83 per 100

Exercise 3.4

Table 3.7 provides the number of reported cases of diphtheria and the number of diphtheria-associated deaths in the United States by decade. Calculate the death-to-case ratio by decade. Describe the data in Table 3.7, including your results.

Table 3.7 Number of Cases and Deaths from Diphtheria by Decade — United States, 1940–1999

DecadeNumber of New CasesNumber of DeathsDeath-to-case Ratio (× 100)
1940–1949

143,497

11,228

7.82
1950–1959

23,750

1,710

1960–1969

3,679

390

1970–1979

1,956

90

1980–1989

27

3

1990–1999

22

5

Data Sources: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Summary of notifiable diseases, United States, 2001. MMWR 2001;50(No. 53).
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Summary of notifiable diseases, United States, 1998. MMWR 1998;47 (No. 53).
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Summary of notifiable diseases, United States, 1989. MMWR 1989;38 (No. 53).

Check your answer.

Case-fatality rate

The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition. The formula is:

Number of cause-specific deaths among the incident cases

Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Total number of incident cases

× 10 n

The case-fatality rate is a proportion, so the numerator is restricted to deaths among people included in the denominator. The time periods for the numerator and the denominator do not need to be the same; the denominator could be cases of HIV/AIDS diagnosed during the calendar year 1990, and the numerator, deaths among those diagnosed with HIV in 1990, could be from 1990 to the present.

EXAMPLE: Calculating Case-Fatality Rates

In an epidemic of hepatitis A traced to green onions from a restaurant, 555 cases were identified. Three of the case-patients died as a result of their infections. Calculate the case-fatality rate.

Case fatality rate = (3 ⁄ 555) × 100 = 0.5%

The case-fatality rate is a proportion, not a true rate. As a result, some epidemiologists prefer the term case-fatality ratio.

The concept behind the case-fatality rate and the death-to-case ratio is similar, but the formulations are different. The death-to-case ratio is simply the number of cause-specific deaths that occurred during a specified time divided by the number of new cases of that disease that occurred during the same time. The deaths included in the numerator of the death-to-case ratio are not restricted to the new cases in the denominator; in fact, for many diseases, the deaths are among persons whose onset of disease was years earlier. In contrast, in the case-fatality rate, the deaths included in the numerator are restricted to the cases in the denominator.

Proportionate mortality

Definition of proportionate mortality

Proportionate mortality describes the proportion of deaths in a specified population over a period of time attributable to different causes. Each cause is expressed as a percentage of all deaths, and the sum of the causes must add to 100%. These proportions are not mortality rates, because the denominator is all deaths rather than the population in which the deaths occurred.

Method for calculating proportionate mortality

For a specified population over a specified period,

Deaths caused by a particular cause

Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Deaths from all causes

× 100

The distribution of primary causes of death in the United States in 2003 for the entire population (all ages) and for persons ages 25–44 years are provided in Table 3.1. As illustrated in that table, accidents (unintentional injuries) accounted for 4.3% of all deaths, but 21.6% of deaths among 25–44 year olds.8

Sometimes, particularly in occupational epidemiology, proportionate mortality is used to compare deaths in a population of interest (say, a workplace) with the proportionate mortality in the broader population. This comparison of two proportionate mortalities is called a proportionate mortality ratio,or PMR for short. A PMR greater than 1.0 indicates that a particular cause accounts for a greater proportion of deaths in the population of interest than you might expect. For example, construction workers may be more likely to die of injuries than the general population.

However, PMRs can be misleading, because they are not based on mortality rates. A low cause-specific mortality rate in the population of interest can elevate the proportionate mortalities for all of the other causes, because they must add up to 100%. Those workers with a high injury-related proportionate mortality very likely have lower proportionate mortalities for chronic or disabling conditions that keep people out of the workforce. In other words, people who work are more likely to be healthier than the population as a whole — this is known as the healthy worker effect.

Exercise 3.5

Using the data in Table 3.8, calculate the missing proportionate mortalities for persons ages 25—44 years for diseases of the heart and assaults (homicide).

Table 3.8 Number, Proportion (Percentage), and Ranking of Deaths for Leading Causes of Death, All Ages and 25–44 Year Age Group — United States, 2003

All agesAges 25–44 Years
NumberPercentageRankNumberPercentageRank
All causes2,443,930 100 128,924 100
Diseases of heart684,462 28 1 16,283
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
3
Malignant neoplasms554,643 22.7 2 19,041 14.8 2
Cerebrovascular_disease157,803 6.5 3 3,004 2.3 8
Chronic lower respiratory_diseases126,128 5.2 4 401 0.3 *
Accidents (unintentional injuries)105,695 4.3 5 27,844 21.6 1
Diabetes mellitus73,965 3 6 2,662 2.1 9
Influenza & pneumonia64,847 2.6 7 1,337 1 10
Alzheimer’s_disease63,343 2.6 8 0 0 *
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, nephrosis33,615 1.4 9 305 0.2 *
Septicemia34,243 1.4 10 328 0.2 *
Intentional self-harm (suicide)30,642 1.3 11 11,251 8.7 4
Chronic liver_disease and cirrhosis27,201 1.1 12 3,288 2.6 7
Assault (homicide)17,096 0.7 13 7,367
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
5
HIV_disease13,544 0.5 * 6,879 5.3 6
All_other456,703 18.7 29,480 22.9

* Not among top ranked causes

Data Sources: CDC. Summary of notifiable diseases, United States, 2003. MMWR 2005;2(No. 54).
Hoyert DL, Kung HC, Smith BL. Deaths: Preliminary data for 2003. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol. 53 no 15. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics 2005: 15, 27.

Check your answer.

Years of potential life lost

Definition of years of potential life lost

Years of potential life lost (YPLL) is one measure of the impact of premature mortality on a population. Additional measures incorporate disability and other measures of quality of life. YPLL is calculated as the sum of the differences between a predetermined end point and the ages of death for those who died before that end point. The two most commonly used end points are age 65 years and average life expectancy.

The use of YPLL is affected by this calculation, which implies a value system in which more weight is given to a death when it occurs at an earlier age. Thus, deaths at older ages are “devalued.” However, the YPLL before age 65 (YPLL65) places much more emphasis on deaths at early ages than does YPLL based on remaining life expectancy (YPLLLE). In 2000, the remaining life expectancy was 21.6 years for a 60-year-old, 11.3 years for a 70-year-old, and 8.6 for an 80-year-old. YPLL65 is based on the fewer than 30% of deaths that occur among persons younger than 65. In contrast, YPLL for life expectancy (YPLLLE) is based on deaths among persons of all ages, so it more closely resembles crude mortality rates.(10)

YPLL rates can be used to compare YPLL among populations of different sizes. Because different populations may also have different age distributions, YPLL rates are usually age-adjusted to eliminate the effect of differing age distributions.

Method for calculating YPLL from a line listing

  1. Step 1. Decide on end point (65 years, average life expectancy, or other).
  2. Step 2. Exclude records of all persons who died at or after the end point.
  3. Step 3. For each person who died before the end point, calculate that person’s YPLL by subtracting the age at death from the end point.

    YPLL individual = end point − age at death

  4. Step 3. Sum the individual YPLLs.

    YPLL = ∑ YPLL individual

Method for calculating YPLL from a frequency

  1. Step 1. Ensure that age groups break at the identified end point (e.g., 65 years). Eliminate all age groups older than the endpoint.
  2. Step 2. For each age group younger than the end point, identify the midpoint of the age group, where midpoint =

    age group’s youngest age in years + oldest age + 1

    Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
    2

  3. Step 3. For each age group younger than the end point, identify that age group’s YPLL by subtracting the midpoint from the end point.
  4. Step 4. Calculate age-specific YPLL by multiplying the age group’s YPLL times the number of persons in that age group.
  5. Step 5. Sum the age-specific YPLL’s.

The YPLL rate represents years of potential life lost per 1,000 population below the end-point age, such as 65 years. YPLL rates should be used to compare premature mortality in different populations, because YPLL does not take into account differences in population sizes.

The formula for a YPLL rate is as follows:

Years of potential life lost

Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Population under age 65 years

× 10 n

EXAMPLE: Calculating YPLL and YPLL Rates

Use the data in Tables 3.9 and 3.10 to calculate the leukemia-related mortality rate for all ages, mortality rate for persons under age 65 years, YPLL, and YPLL rate.

  1. Leukemia related mortality rate, all ages

    = (21,498 ⁄ 288,357,000) × 100,000 = 7.5 leukemia deaths per 100,000 population

  2. Leukemia related mortality rate for persons under age 65 years

    =

    125 + 316 + 472 + 471 + 767 + 1,459 + 2,611

    Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
    (19,597 + 41,037 + 40,590 +39,928 + 44,917 + 40,084 + 26,602)

    × 100,000

    = 6,221 ⁄ 252,755,000 = × 100,000

    = 2.5 leukemia deaths per 100,000 persons under age 65 years

  3. Leukemia related YPLL
    1. Calculate the midpoint of each age interval. Using the previously shown formula, the midpoint of the age group 0–4 years is (0 + 4 + 1) ⁄ 2, or 5 ⁄ 2, or 2.5 years. Using the same formula, midpoints must be determined for each age group up to and including the age group 55 to 64 years (see column 3 of Table 3.10).
    2. Subtract the midpoint from the end point to determine the years of potential life lost for a particular age group. For the age group 0–4 years, each death represents 65 minus 2.5, or 62.5 years of potential life lost (see column 4 of Table 3.10).
    3. Calculate age specific years of potential life lost by multiplying the number of deaths in a given age group by its years of potential life lost. For the age group 0–4 years, 125 deaths × 62.5 = 7,812.5 YPLL (see column 5 of Table 3.10).
    4. Total the age specific YPLL. The total YPLL attributed to leukemia in the United States in 2002 was 117,033 years (see Total of column 5, Table 3.10).
  4. Leukemia related YPLL rate

    = YPLL65 rate
    = YPLL divided by population to age 65
    = (117,033 ⁄ 252,755,000) × 1,000
    = 0.5 YPLL per 1,000 population under age 65

Table 3.9 Deaths Attributed to HIV or Leukemia by Age Group — United States, 2002

Age group (Years)Population
(× 1,000)
Number of
HIV Deaths
Number of Leukemia Deaths
Total288,357 14,095 21,498
0–419,597 12 125
5–1441,037 25 316
15–2440,590 178 472
25–3439,928 1,839 471
35–4444,917 5,707 767
45–5440,084 4,474 1,459
55–6426,602 1,347 2,611
65+35,602 509 15,277
Not stated 4 0

Data Source: Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) [online database] Atlanta; National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. Available from: /injury/wisqars.

Table 3.10 Deaths and Years of Potential Life Lost Attributed to Leukemia by Age Group — United States, 2002

Column 1
Age Group (years)
Column 2
Deaths
Column 3
Age Midpoint
Column 4
Years to 65
Column 5
YPLL
Total21,498 117,033
0–4125 2.5 62.5 7,813
5–14316 10 55 17,380
15–24472 20 45 21,240
25–34471 30 35 16,485
35–44767 40 25 19,175
45–541,459 50 15 21,885
55–642,611 60 5 13,055
65+15,277
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Not stated0
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?
Which stage of the demographic transition has birth and death rates that are approximately equal quizlet?

Data Source: Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) [online database] Atlanta; National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars.

Exercise 3.6

Use the HIV data in Table 3.9 to answer the following questions:

  1. What is the HIV-related mortality rate, all ages?
  2. What is the HIV-related mortality rate for persons under 65 years?
  3. What is the HIV-related YPLL before age 65?
  4. What is the HIV-related YPLL65 rate?
  5. Create a table comparing the mortality rates and YPLL for leukemia and HIV. Which measure(s) might you prefer if you were trying to support increased funding for leukemia research? For HIV research?

Check your answer.

References (This Section)

  1. Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) [online database] Atlanta; National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. [cited 2006 Feb 1]. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars.
  2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Health, United States, 2004. Hyattsville, MD.; 2004.
  3. Wise RP, Livengood JR, Berkelman RL, Goodman RA. Methodologic alternatives for measuring premature mortality. Am J Prev Med 1988;4:268–273.

What is Stage 4 demographic transition?

STAGE 4: LOW GROWTH RATE. A nation enters Stage 4 of the demographic transition model when CBRs equal to or become less than CDRs. When CBRs are equal to CDRs, a nation will experience zero population growth (ZPG).

What is Stage 2 of the demographic transition model?

Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a rapid decrease in a country's death rate while the birth rate remains high. As such, the total population of a country in Stage 2 will rise because births outnumber deaths, not because the birth rate is rising.

What happens in Stage 3 of the demographic transition?

In Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), death rates are low and birth rates decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women's status and education, and access to contraception.

What happens in Stage 3 of the demographic transition quizlet?

Describe the third stage of the Demographic transition model. Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall. The total population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant. Describe the fourth stage of the Demographic transition model.